Competition news

THE CHANCES OF DEPOR IN LA LIGA

21 Jan 2009
Lotina’s Deportivo will need to exactly complete the same performance of the first round in order to have a chance to compete in Europe during the next season, at least that’s what the stats say. The mathematical salvation, meanwhile, is just twelve points away and could even be reached in February.

The first goal of the season has always been the permanence at Primera Divisi??n, but the solid first round of Deportivo is pushing the objectives to other limits, more specifically to a position that would guarantee a spot in a European competition. With the aspirations in Copa Del Rey already finished, the only way to fulfill the dream is to end at least sixth in la liga.

But what are the chances of Depor? No matter the huge budgets and the powerful teams of the considered six biggest teams in Spain (Barcelona, Real Madrid, Atletico Madrid, Sevilla, Villarreal and Valencia), it is possible to say that Depor has big chances to complete the mission.

First to all, it’s necessary to emphasise that Deportivo is near to achieve the permanence at Primera Divisi??n, something that has always been the main goal of the season. Nobody has ended in Segunda after adding 43 points in the regular season, and since Depor already added 30, the team of Lotina only needs 13 more points in order to complete the objective. Actually it could need fewer points taking in mind the situation in previous seasons.

Season

Team (17th)

Points

2003/2004

Valladolid

41

2004/2005

Levante

37

2005/2006

Alaves

39

2006/2007

Celta

39

2007/2008

Zaragoza

42

As the table shows up, only Real Valladolid on the season 2003/2004 and Real Zaragoza on the last one were close to the 43-points mark, and judging by the current run of the last three places (Espanyol 15, Mallorca 14 and Osasuna 13), it is very probable that the 17th place in la liga (the last one relegated) will not pass from the 37-point mark of Levante on the season 2004/2005. Meaning that Depor will need less points to secure the permanence, it could be the case that the safety would be only seven or nine points away from the Galicians, and that it could be achieved as soon as in February.

Season

Team (6th)

Points

2003/2004

Sevilla

55

2004/2005

Sevilla

60

2005/2006

Celta

64

2006/2007

Zaragoza

60

2007/2008

Racing

60

About the chances of ending in a European place, the table above shows that Depor will practically need to duplicate its points in the first round in order to end in a European place, and it’s that only Sevilla on the season 2005/2006 needed more than 60 points in order to end sixth (last ticket to the UEFA Cup), actually the same Sevilla just needed 55 two years before that.

But without doubt one of the keys will be the performance of direct rivals like Valencia, Villarreal, Atl?©tico Madrid and the surprising Malaga. It is true that Depor lost the last two liga games showing its worst face, but Valencia has only picked four of the last twelve points in dispute, same thing than Atletico, while Villarreal has just added four of the last fifteen. This situation has allowed Depor to be living just one point below the European spots, a victory at the Bernab?©u could be very important, specially taking in mind that Atletico Madrid and Malaga play against each other on the weekend.  If Depor wants to end at least sixth in the standings, it must take advantage of the poor form of the big teams.

ARCHIVE NEWS JAN/09

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