Competition news

MATH OF SALVATION

10 May 2017
Deportivo, Sporting Gijón and CD Leganés are the three clubs trying to avoid the last spot in the relegation. The Galicians and the Madrilenians have the advantage, but the situation is complex due to the possible ties.

Deportivo and CD Leganés are the clubs in the better position, but things are more complicated due to the results between the three clubs involved in the fight to avoid demotion. With only six points separating them, it’s possible to have two clubs tied in points and even to see the three of them ending in a tie-breaker.

The rule in la liga is that the result between the clubs tied in points are the first criterion to break the tie. In this sense Depor won the series to Sporting, but lost it with Leganés, while the Madrilenians lose the series with the Asturians.

Despite the most recent results the probabilities of salvation for Deportivo are high, 98.77%. The salvation could be secured on this matchday or instead it will have to wait until the last day. There are three possible scenarios for this Sunday:

1- If Deportivo win at Villarreal CF: The Galicians will secure the permanence without needing to look to what the other two clubs in the mess do, so the relegation will be between CD Leganés and Sporting Gijón.

2- If Deportivo get a point at Villarreal: Depor will have to wait and see what happens in the other two games. If Sporting Gijón are able to get the three points visiting SD Eibar then it will have to check if CD Leganés are able to get anything from their visit to Athletic Club. If the Madrilenians get a positive result then Depor will be saved as the triple draw is no longer possible and in the worst scenario Depor and Sporting would end tied in points, and in this case Depor prevail after winning the particular series with the Asturians.

If Sporting win and CD Leganés lose, then the fight for the permanence will be extended until the last matchday, because there’s a chance of a triple tie and in that particular case Deportivo would be the side going down as what counts is a sum of the results of the sides involved in the tie, and since each team won two games in the series between them then the next criterion is the goal average in those six games and it’s negative for the Galicians: Leganés (+2), Sporting (+1), Depor (-3) 

There’s also the case in which Sporting Gijón could miss the victory at SD Eibar, then Deportivo will be saved as the Asturians can no longer catch the Galicians at the standings.

3- If Deportivo lose at Villarreal: There’s the chance that Depor could be saved even losing the match, for this Sporting Gijón would have to draw or lose at SD Eibar. In that case the Asturians would be relegated. If they win the game, then Depor will have to wait until the last matchday having a two-point lead over the Asturians.

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